Technical Charts: Possible Market Tops for BBCA & BMRI (Indonesian Banking Sector)

Trendline and momentum

Bank BCA (BBCA)

Failed RSI divergence. Trendline break = high chance of a bear market.

Detrended oscillator is back to its extreme level.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI)

Failed RSI divergence. Trendline break = high chance of a bear market.

Detrended oscillator is back to its extreme level.

Market Geometry

BBCA

62% & 38% confluence of mirror projection from 7.000 as the 'mid-point'.

Equality (100%) target projected from 4.700 (the low of year 2020).

BMRI

Mirror projection from 6.550 (mid-point): equality from year 2020 low and 50% from its lowest point (year 2009 low).

Given the context of global market in previous analysis, we may have reached historic market top.

If we look at motorcar and car purchases (in units) as indicator of Indonesian household purchasing power, excluding year of 2020, the trend has already reversed since 2014. 2018-2019 recovery is not as strong and obviously weaker in motorcar, which is indicative of lower-income segment condition. After pandemic, it only got worse.