EVA Roundup Part 2
- Rio Adrianus
- 18 Jun 2020
- 2 menit membaca
Covered: CASH, HOKI, BWPT, MNCN, LPPF
CASH (Cashlez Worldwide Indonesia)
If you take stock investment seriously, you should avoid owning this stock. To say CASH business is economically unprofitable is an understatement. Its business effectively has no assets ever since it sold its office building. There is no value to speak of.
HOKI (Buyung Poetra Sembada)
It would be too much to expect HOKI share price to trade below its book value. It has been economically profitable. The opportunity given by the market right now is in the growth spectrum, but expecting growth in this year is a stretch. No change of view from last assessment.
BWPT (Eagle High Plantation)
Readers should know I own a lot of palm oil stocks, especially this one. So, although I make analysis as objectively as possible, some tones could make unintended nuance.
With that being said, I see no reason why BWPT EVA would not increase substantially at least in this year, just like other CPO companies. A business value increases when its EVA increases. It is a fact that CPO price has increased substantially from last year. No change from previous assessment and CPO price assessment from technical view remains the same.
MNCN (Media Nusantara Citra)
Dari assessment terakhir:
[..... there is a good chance EVA akan melorot di tahun ini. Dan perkembangan itu akan membuat assessment market saat ini menjadi tidak begitu negatif. Dengan kata lain, apabila EVA betul melorot di tahun ini, harga saham saat ini belum merefleksikan extreme pessimism. I have 500 in mind (fibonacci work). Should that occur, Iāll be a very, very, interested buyer].
What has changed?
Dengan cepatnya rebound rupiah, penurunan EVA sepertinya akan jauh lebih lembut dari yang saya duga. Ini membuat proyeksi ke 500 terlalu negatif dari perspektif EVA. If that is the case, MNCN kemungkinan sudah melihat bottomnya di 740/share. Dan perubahan pandangan kontraksi EVA ini membuat bet saat ini tampak sangat rewarding. I call it. It is an economically profitable company and should be valued above its book value. I believe this is a good time to make a large bet here.
LPPF (Matahari Department Store)
Matahari Dept Store is one that is hit very hard by coronavirus response. I cranked up some numbers. You just canāt know how EVA would look like if you donāt run the numbers. I am pretty shocked by what I have found. It is really, really bad. The management saw a potential substantial decline in net earnings. Economic profit finding is more profound. For the first time, LPPF EVA would turn negative. LPPF becomes a value destroyer. It canāt earn enough to cover its cost of capital. From the way I see it, there is no way LPPF EVA would stay positive by the end of this year. EVA momentum might contract by 24%(!!). There is no way such a huge contraction would be overlooked by the market.
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